Next PM? The bets are on!!

Yesterday (30th) conservative health secretary Matt Hancock was given the odds 10-1 by William Hill to become the next Prime Minister replacing Teressa May.

I am not a betting man but this could be worth a flutter (this by the way is not a tip just an observation)

Sajid Javid (9-1) is also in the running, He would be my preferred PM, I do like this guy a lot and think he could be the best man for our country but he has offended too many liberal-minded Conservatives with his reaction to the migrant crossing and Shamima Begum carryon (one of the reasons I like him is for his ability to stand up and speak out, well....at least more than most) 

Who else have we got?

Micheal Grove (4-1 Fav)? But perhaps too much a prominent Brexiteer and the same could perhaps be said about Boris Johnson (9-2 and still carrying that stab wound in his back from Grove) and may MPs say they would resign if Buffon...sorry, I mean Boris was to become PM.

Jeremy Hunt seems a good favourite get there is a sense he just does not have the kinda following he would need to succeed.

Dominic Rabb, David Davis, Penny Mordaunt and David Lidington? I really don’t know enough about this pair so they don’t really stand out in my mind. 

Andrea Leadsom (25-1) ..she was in the final two in 2016 before pulling out and she is quite experienced so I would think she is in with a shout.

Jacob Rees-Mogg (28-1)? I don’t think so, the Brexit he is pushing for tends not to make a lot of friends within his party, although I do see him as the archetype statesman and Brexit views aside (I am a remainer) I do a wee bit respect him as a politician is a perverse sort of way, he has risen from the obscurity of the back-benches and I so find myself search on YouTube to watch him give talks to universities ..he almost convinces me to change my opinion about Brexit ....almost. I will also add here that I don’t like his devout Catholicism.... but he does seem to know how to keep the line between church and state.

Amber (Windrush) Rudd? Just no!

Ruth Davidson? Would not be the worst but I dont think she can even be in the running here.

You can get odds for David Cameron coming back into the fray at 200/1  

If you really want a long shot they you can place a bet of Tyson Fury becoming the next PM at 1000/1 .... now that ... I would like to see!! preferably for the safe haven of another country!!  .....yet everyone I mention above are still preferable than Labour getting in with Corbyn at the wheel ....that is just too unthinkable!!! 

Despite all the troubles the Conservatives are having i believe they are still polling higher than Labour at 35% to 31% I dont even this we should consider Lib Dems who are at 100-1. 

‘Revoke Article 50’ petition

Recently the ‘Revoke Article 50’ petition has been doing the rounds on social media and filling my inbox sent from well-meaning friends and contacts.

I will make it clear that I have signed it, not that I believe it will be meaningful only to share this common solidarity with likewise minds.

I do consider its noble in theory (my thoughts as I am a remainer) but in practice it is a waste of time and sharing it on social media posts are akin in my opinion to sharing a meme and voicing your political stance but by all means continue, it does signal how around half the population feel and a badge of purpose for those who share it, I certainly don’t wish to appear as knocking it, only questioning what it will truly achieve.

Signatures on this petition appear to have come from all over the world, from destinations such as  North Korea, China and ..err…the fantastic  land of Disney , eminent signatories  such as Micky Mouse and Donald, also equally impressively Kim Jong-un, also I hear that Rees-Mogg has signed it 6000 times (obviously not the real Rees-Mogg)

 It is also vulnerable to duplicated signatures through multiple email addresses and the use of “BOTS” as (at least when I signed it) no Captcha Verification (Completely Automated Public Turing Test to tell Computers and Humans Apart) to ensure all respondents are genuine breathing humans.

Because of these reasons this online petition is really just a very loose online survey open to manipulation and does not follow the proper rules of polling methodologies.

The petition’s signatories do geographically match that of the 2016 vote to remain (if you forget about Kim Jong-Un and co) so it does reflect that vote but not much else.

As I often point out, I am and continue to be a Remainer, I wish to stay in Europe as I do believe we are better together but I (we) must accept there has been a democratic vote  (I have previously posted the bad side of democracy and this I feel is an example also for such a change in constitution I also believe there should be a set majority for it to rule but despite what I think about democracy this vote followed the rules)   but now this petition and all matters related with appear to be an attempt to  tell a great number of people of this country that their vote does not matter, and that by extension, neither do they.

On the positive side it is very impressive that a tenth of the eligible electorate of the country has signed it (well if we disregard the obvious fakes) and that it is the most popular in the history of the Commons Petitions Committee. It does display the taste as if there was another vote, a so-called “peoples vote” then although it does stick up two fingers at democracy, I for one would certainly be happier and hope the outcome would be different …but then there is no guarantees that it would unfortunately.   

Bloody Sunday (Douglas Murray)

The Bloody Sunday massacre which happened in 1972 (before I was born) is hitting the news again as they discuss prosecuting the Paras involved. 

It is most peoples “horse-sense” to be outraged that due to the Good Friday agreement the IRA (and other groups) were set free but the British soldiers involved, some in their 60s and early 70s now, are facing prosecution.
On the face of it I did initially feel tempted to agree with the majority, after all ... the IRA considers themselves as combatants so why should they get off Scott free when the British army are getting charged ...but....there is apparently more considered facts and allegations which needs to be analysed here before deciding which side to take (not that it needs to be such a binary decision)
....now also remember that the army do have a certain “rule of engagement” 

One such statement which would perhaps flow against the treads would be “Then, while Doherty lay crying in agony, a 41-year-old man called Barney McGuigan stepped out from behind a block of flats to try to get help for the dying man. McGuigan was waving a white handkerchief. According to the testimony of numerous witnesses, including an officer from another regiment stationed on the city walls, soldier F — positioned on the other side of the road — got down on one knee and shot McGuigan through the head” this statement shakes my impulses a wee bit when wanting to choose between the old “goodies verse baddies” scenario

Great book which I highly recommend and I do agree with the findings of the Saville inquiry.

My conclusions from reading this are that “Solider F” deserves to be prosecuted (possibly Solider H too) I also believe the (provo and official) IRA were present on that fateful day, armed and did fire (in response) Martin McGuiness was at one point most certainly armed (and possibly fired) 

During the inquiry lies (perjury) were done by both sides. The IRA did intimidate witnesses although not always directly and they have used and continue to use Bloody Sunday as propaganda to their cause. I also believe the Widgery inquiry was a blatant whitewash.

I still believe our armed forces are the best in the world and that event should not reflect then overall (or even their service during the troubles) 

As for Gerry Adam’s demands at the time (and repeated by others more recently) for other inquires to take place over British military involvement in Ireland I would say...Quid pro quo, if you want to open old wounds then let’s discuss (as Murray makes a point of comparison in this book)  the La Mon Hotel massacre, Warrenpoint, Warrington, Enniskillen, Claudy or Birmingham or the disappearances of Jean McConville or Bloody Friday where without warning the IRA set off twenty bombs across Belfast in the space of 75 minutes killing 9 and wounding 130 people.

Read this book, come to your own conclusions and dont get caught in the trap of trail by social media.

Scottish Oil Fund Fudge

Due partly to the disastrous negotiations over Brexit the SNP are bleeding chum into the waters again in the attempts to cause a social feeding frenzy with the aid of their Pro-(Scottish)-Independence supporters (also to keep their needed support) which is also a time proven strategy to deflect from their mismanagement of Scotland over the past decade including their inability the cope with the devolved services they have taken from Westminster, recently most notably with welfare and benefits but still we hear their grievances from the Shortbread Senate confirming they are just a protest party and not once which can act. They certainly are happy to take credit when the fruit blossoms from the policies of previous administrations in Scotland but the that fruit does take a bruising when they pluck it aggressively and attempt to say it was their original idea, lies which the tartan tambourine thumpers eagerly swallow like a cheap porn actress in a POV scene despite all facts to the contrary.

The usual “revelations” and accusations are being made on Social media about how Scotland would be such a prosperous national if only it would cut its strings with the rest of the UK which they (Nationalists) accuse of stealing from this great national, placing us in chains and holding us back…..my answer to this is …WHAT A LOAD OF (Highland) BULLSHIT

The ‘Comparison to Norway” bit seems to be raising its dick again so I would just like to write a little bit about this comparison of apples to pears although I always thought it strange that Nationalists never compare Scotland with its Oil to Venezuela…. But hey, I guess when you are trying to win an argument against facts its ok to geographically cherry pick….The SNP had done it for years using more favourable statistics from the GERS reports and ignoring less favourable to paint their dishonest picture.

Anyway….the usual argument goes something like this (based on a true story)..…

“We've always had more oil than Norway , but they invested..
While Westminster wasted and sold off our our industry”

Well firstly I am not so sure that we always had more oil than Norway but what is more important is that our oil has been more than double the cost to extract compared to Norway.  The UK has the same market price fro Oil as Norway does but the cost of productions (and volumes) are different.

North Sea revenues are generated by taxing production profits now with the higher extraction costs in the UK and the incurring decommissioning costs there is just not the same (or anywhere near the same) profits to tax compared to Norway.

Now also if we could master the art of time travel, go back in the past to start an Oil Fund such as Norway has then it would mean we could never have spent the money we had made from oil, that should make sense…if you save you cant spend…..so what would be have to make savings on to enable us to start an oil fund to use for a rainy day?  Health care….the NHS? Good luck to any party who would suggest this!!  Health care is not free in Norway as it is in the UK. The roads and infrastructure in the UK, some of that would have to be erased and the butterfly effect that would cause if we could travel back in time and start putting that revenue into a Oil Fund.

Starting to see the picture?   Let’s not lower ourselves to engaged with comparisons when discussing Scottish Independence….. the Majority of Economists agree it would be a terrible thing and if it did happen in 2014 we would be up the proverbial shit river without a paddle just now…. And if the next argument is …”but we would still  be in the EU when the UK pulls out over BREXIT” then please read up on this more as I don’t have the patience or time to post more about this.  My arguments and other Unionists warning were said in 2013/14 and were since proven accurate…. I don’t want to crow that I was right….but…I’m crowing!!!

"Lets Pretend" Gender in Sports

Read an interesting article today about the future of woman’s sports as the government under pressure of the pro-trans lobby and certain liberal “progressives” are passing gender laws so basically if a bloke decides he is a woman for all intents and purposes we must pretend with him...sorry I mean “her” that he (she) is indeed a “woman” and can’t be prejudiced against so will be able to compete in woman’s sporting events “fairly” against “real” woman 

Female MMA and boxing is about to become even more bloody when a big Bruno tucks up his Crown Jewels, sticks on a sports bra, called himself Doris and starts throwing testosterone fuelled left hooks against the (born) fairer sex.  It can be argued that some of the XX chromosome (I.e born ladies) fighters that I have seen you would not want to bump into in a dark alley or still their pints in a pub but all the same, it does don’t sound a very fair fight...perhaps they could level the playing field a little by allowing punches under the belt?

Anyway it’s not only contact sports these new gender laws will cause problems. 

Martina Navratilova (famous dyke retired tennis player and now sports commentator, someone who is a long-standing campaigner for gay rights and suffered abuse when she came out as gay in the 1980s.) has spoken up about this as she considers it cheating but has since felt the wrath of the pro-trans brigade and was called “transphobic” and had to apologise 

I feel this is a world gone crazy, sure, I do agree that there are some people who feel they are a woman trapped in a mans body or vice versa but these days the “pro-trans” (facilities like the government backed Travistock clinic’s gender development services) are taking the decisions to “transition” people, especially children too fast without taking into account social or personal factors such as if the person has suffered emotional or physical abuse or perhaps a bereavement. The whole psychological and psychoanalysis steps are often being overlooked or done too quickly.

For example every year around 2000 children are referred to the Travistock clinic alone and a very high number of these kids go on to get chemical or surgical gender reassignment!!!

Returning to my main theme, Under guidelines introduced in 2016, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) allows athletes transitioning from female to male to participate without restrictions.

Male to female competitors, however, are required to have kept their levels of testosterone below a certain level for at least 12 months. But still, if you put a good female athlete against an equally gifted male ...sorry, I mean ex-male athlete then the trans-chap-burd will surely have the advantage.

I wonder what the future may hold for other daft ideas... perhaps trans-species, I no longer see myself an a human, I see myself as a horse trapped in a mans body, I want to change my name from Dearn to Redrum and run at the grand national and if you or the horse racing federation don’t like it then I will take you to court at sue!!! 

Or perhaps I will be a trans-dog, I may shit in the street and hump your leg but you can’t to a thing because I have decided I’m a dog and if you don’t like it then you are in trouble.... and I may bite you.....perhaps I’m going too far here, getting carried away ....a little H G Wells Doctor Moreau when we should just keep to the facts like Shelley’s Frankenstein.

The bottom line is that yes, you have the right to be what you want, you should get respect and support but some common sense needs to prevail here, I should not be forced by law to pretend that your genetical material has changed from XY chromosome to XX just because you decided to sprinkle the magic fairy dust of this progressive liberal "state sponsored" fad over you nor should I give you the same cheers for beating up a woman in a boxing ring because you now called yourself Sheila and believe it gives you a right to compete fairly against woman.....as it does not!!!